Showing posts with label MDA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MDA. Show all posts

26 February 2014

Alaska Legislature Funding Kodiak Launch Complex is a Waste of Money

Dear Legislator:
      This message is written on behalf of the Kodiak Rocket Launch Information Group to explain why it is time to stop pouring money into the black hole that is the Kodiak Launch Complex.  KRLIG was formed in 1995 as an ad hoc group of Kodiak residents who were frustrated with Alaska Aerospace's lack of information and refusal to answer questions about the, at that time, proposed KLC.   As we corresponded with scientists, business people, and others around the country connected to the aerospace industry, our extensive research made it apparent that a rocket launching facility in Kodiak would NEVER pay for itself - a fact that has proven to be true.  It was at this point (1996 or 97) that more and more Kodiak residents opposed what came to be known locally as  "Space Pork Kodiak". A few years ago, an AAC official admitted to the Kodiak Island Borough Assembly that launch revenues had never covered the costs of keeping the facility open. 
     Some legislators have used the term "federally funded asset" in relation to the KLC; this phrase is somewhat misleading.  A more accurate term would be, "Ted Stevens funded asset".  When AAC went to AIDEA for a construction loan in the '90s, they were told not to come back until they could prove they would have the business to pay it back.  This never happened because they could not show they would have sufficient launches to pay back a loan and, more importantly, Senator Ted Stevens (at that time on the Senate Appropriations Committee) pushed through unwanted funding to USAF/DoD for initial construction - 40 million dollars, as I recall.  
      Here is a link to a story that explains what happened:  http://kodiaklaunchcomplex.blogspot.com/2008/12/klc-wasnt-wanted-by-military.html      This story appeared in  the Kodiak Daily Mirror in 2008. 
      Here is an article from the NY Times from about the same time documenting the USAF opposition to funding the KLC:  http://kodiaklaunchcomplex.blogspot.com/2008/10/incontrovertible-proof-that-klc-is.html
     Since 1998, AAC has been entirely dependent on state and federal funds just to keep the KLC open.  I am sure that you will hear from them this year that "several companies are interested in launches and contracts are imminent".  They have repeated that mantra for at least fifteen years with few results.  They will tout their "partnerships" as proof they are major players in the launch industry.  Well, without actual launch contracts they are not what they pretend to be.
       As long as Ted Stevens was in the Senate, the federal funds flowed; once he was out, it wasn't long until the Missile Defense Agency canceled the contract that essentially paid the costs of the KLC just to keep it open in case they wanted to launch a target missile.
    You may also hear claims along the "build it and they will come" line......another ploy AAC has used for years to continue to build more infrastructure requiring more money for maintenance, yet not really acquiring launch contracts. Keep in mind that every launch from the KLC has been paid for by federal government agencies - most have been military-funded launches.  Not one private entity has ever paid to launch a rocket in Kodiak.
    The last launch was September 26, 2011, and as of February 9, 2014,  there are no launches listed for 2014 on their website.  We don't know many businesses that can or should survive when, in almost three years,  they don't perform the service for which they were created.  Funding of the KLC is simply corporate welfare.
    The KLC was built on false premises, a non-existent (or fantasy) business plan, and now just sucks state funding for high salaries for its corporate officers (who do not reside in Kodiak) and maintenance for an ocean side facility that is quickly rusting away.  AAC will claim that they are bringing income and jobs to Kodiak.  This simply not true except when there is construction going on which provides short-term benefits although often the workers are from off-island or even out of state.
     Finally, it is my understanding that AAC has been paying a monthly stipend of $15,000 to the owner of the Narrow Cape Lodge which is used for lodging launch-related personnel;  it has been empty for the nearly three years since the last launch at the KLC.  We have learned that a legislator is trying to get state funds for AAC to purchase the "Space Hotel", which would mean even higher costs for them to maintain the KLC.  This purchase would be a waste of our dwindling state funds.
    Alaska Legislators, thank you for your attention to this issue.  It really is time to stop wasting money on this state boondoggle and close it down.   We have better and more productive uses for state money than the "Launch Pad to Nowhere". 
 We urge you to take action to stop this unrecoverable loss from our dwindling state coffers.  We look forward to your reply and thank you for your service to our state.

03 November 2010

UPDATE: Kodiak Launch Complex Pork Requests

KRLIG received the following clarification related to our KLC for Sale? post  from a Kodiak resident who spoke with Tom Walters who sits on the Alaska Aerospace Board of Directors.
AAC is indeed requesting ten million dollars per year for the foreseeable future from the State of Alaska.
The 80 million dollar request is to construct an air strip at Narrow Cape, a second rocket storage facility, and a second launch pad.
Mr. Walters was noncommittal on the question of whether the KLC would be offered up for sale if AAC did not receive the requested corporate welfare.
AAC has publicly admitted that launch revenues have NEVER covered the costs of operating and maintaining the KLC.
The audacity of this plea for government handouts is astounding!  No launches since December 2008 and, according to the AAC Timeline, of the fourteen launches that have occurred thus far, almost all were Missile Defense Agency (MDA) launches. The MDA has terminated its contract with the KLC for launches and providing funds to keep the facility open.
So, more rocket storage capacity and another launch pad although few, if any, launches will occur at the KLC?   Why should the state and federal government continue to pour dollars into a bottomless black hole of waste?
Narrow Cape is an important recreation, subsistence, hunting, and fishing area - further development of KLC infrastructure will contribute to substantial degradation of these uses.
The Nov 2 elections results seem to indicate that people want less government spending - zero bailouts for the KLC is an excellent step in the "right" direction. It's time to put this rusting white elephant to rest, once and for all.

15 April 2010

We Told You So, Part Deux: Kodiak Launch Complex Loses Missile Defense

Note that nowhere in the story below does it mention AAC attempting to find commercial launch customers. When AAC first came to town, they rarely mentioned military launches - they were going to launch telecommunications satellites for private firms - we're still waiting for the first non-military customer. And they want to build even more infrastructure - they are not using the launch pads they have, but they want to build another one!  Now, that's wise use of government funding!
Launch complex loses missile defense
Article published on Wednesday, April 14th, 2010
By SAM FRIEDMAN
Mirror Writer
The Alaska Aerospace Corporation is looking for new customers to launch rockets from its Kodiak Launch Complex as it prepares to lose business from the U.S. Missile Defense Agency, its most valuable customer.
Since 2004, the MDA has been the only customer to launch missiles from the Narrow Cape facility. In total, it has launched eight rockets from Kodiak, the majority of the facility’s 14 launches.
The MDA’s contract with Alaska Aerospace ends Aug. 31.
In the past, rockets launched in Kodiak have played the role of test target missiles to intercept rockets launched from California’s Vandenberg Air Force Base. New plans call for sending the test missiles from Kwajalein in the Marshall Islands said MDA spokesman Richard Lehner.
“To make it more challenging we’re launching the test missiles from Kwajalein,” he said. “To make it more operationally realistic.”
To pay some of its costs while it searches for new customers, Alaska Aerospace Corporation requested $4 million from the State of Alaska’s capital budget to help pay costs in its 2011 budget. The $4 million sum is approximately the same as the company’s net loss before capital contributions in the 2009 fiscal year.
The funding request is now winding its way through the state Legislature, which concludes its session Sunday.
“We need to be prepared,” said Alaska Aerospace Corp. CEO Dale Nash. “We don’t yet know what will happen with the MDA launches. We have asked for the state Legislature to tide us over.”
Alaska Aerospace Corp. also hopes to cover its costs with two non-MDA launches this fall. Both are for the U.S. Force, which has used the Kodiak Launch Complex before.
In mid-September the Kodiak Launch Complex is expected to launch STP-S26, a rocket that holds several scientific experiments Nash said.
Its payload includes a space phenomenology experiment and an ocean data telemetry satellite according to the Alaska Aerospace Corp’s annual report. The rocket also contains FalconSat-5, a satellite designed by engineering students at the Air Force Academy.
Between 60 and 90 days later the complex is supposed to launch the TACat4, a satellite that will provide Ultra High Frequency communication channels.
The launches were previously scheduled for 2009, but have been delayed.
Back in January, Alaska Lt. Gov. Campbell wrote in a guest opinion in the Kodiak Daily Mirror that the Kodiak Launch Complex needs to move beyond its MDA work.
In early January, he traveled with Nash to Colorado to lobby the Air Force to use the Kodiak Launch complex for its future launches. He expressed optimism about a meeting with Gen. Robert Kehler, Air Force Space Commander
”While it is too early to declare victory, our meetings netted some very positive direction,” Campbell said.
This summer, work is expected to finish on the Kodiak Launch Complex’s new rocket motor storage facility. Another proposed project would add a third launch pad to the complex, allowing two customers to use the launch complex simultaneously.
Nash said engineering work has been done for the third launch pad, but there are no further plans unless federal stimulus money becomes available or the complex sees an upswing in commercial spaceport demand.
Mirror writer Sam Friedman can be reached via e-mail at sfriedman@kodiakdailymirror.com.

27 June 2009

DoD SBIR/STTR: Missile Defense Agency's 5th Annual Industry Day


Saturday, June 27, 2009
DoD SBIR/STTR: Missile Defense Agency's 5th Annual Industry Day

The Missile Defense Agency's 5th Annual Industry Day is being held August 11-12, 2009, at the Hyatt Regency Hotel, Long Beach, CA (200 South Pine Ave., Long Beach, CA 90802). The conference is expected to draw representatives from small and large businesses in the high technology R&D sector. Attendees will have the opportunity to sign up for one-on-one sessions with key MDA technical representatives and industry personnel as well as hear overview presentations from key MDA technology leaders.

By establishing this event, it is the goal for the MDA SBIR PMO to allow small businesses the opportunity to schedule one-on-one appointments with technical representatives where they can learn as much as they can about the technical aspects of the SBIR/STTR Program and the upcoming solicitations topics and research areas. A better informed small business community is more likely to submit stronger, more focused proposals and minimize duplication and mistakes - enhancing the SBIR/STTR process for MDA and the Small Business Community.

The Industry Day will focus on enhancing the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) and Small Business Technology Transfer (STTR) process for the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) and the Small Business Community. Research Area Leads will give briefings on the following technology areas:

Interceptor Technology
Manufacturing, Producibility & Field Sustainability
Radar Technology
Space Technology
Command, Control, Battle Management and Communications (C2BMC)
Directed Energy
Modeling & Simulation
Innovative Concepts & Special Focus Projects*


*Represents SBIR only

This is an opportunity to interact directly with key agency and industry personnel. Direct communication between potential bidders and topic authors is not allowed after August 23, 2009 - the last day of the SBIR pre-solicitation period. After the solicitation opens on August 24, 2009, all questions regarding topics must be addressed through the online SBIR/STTR Interactive Topic Information System (SITIS). For more information, visit http://www.mdasbir.com. Registration is available at www.ndia.org/meetings/9160.

09 May 2009

Kodiak Launch Complex Already Outdated & Obsolete?



Top General: Missile Defense Is Dead, Long Live Missile Defense (Updated)

Ftt09a

Ballistic missile defense as we know it is all but dead, one of the country’s top military just declared. But already, there are new anti-missile priorities taking shape.

General James Cartwright, the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, relayed the message yesterday to the defense industry. "Ballistic missiles are about as passé as e-mail," he said to an audience of missile-defense contractors. "Nobody does it anymore. It’s just gone… no stupid person, enemy out there would be so silly as to come at us with a minimum-energy trajectory. Give me a break. Even the people we would call ‘Third World’ have gone beyond that."

The administration of President George W. Bush poured around $10 billion a year into ballistic missile defense; it focused particular effort on fielding a limited missile defense capability that would protect the United States from a lone missile lobbed by a rogue state (i.e., North Korea). It also expended serious political capital trying to seal a politically controversial deal to station missile defense interceptors in Eastern Europe.

In theory, the European site was supposed to protect the United States and Europe from long-range ballistic missiles launched from the Middle East (although Iran has yet to acquire a missile that could reach the United States). Cartwright said missile defense funds would shift toward deterring more realistic threats. "The architecture associated with those terminal defense type capabilities, those area defense type capabilities that have the mobility and have the capability to be out there to address those threats are where we are going to start to put money," he said. "Because it is the most likely."

That’s good news for the developers of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or Thaad, a "hit-to-kill" air defense system that can knock down short- and medium-range missiles at greater ranges and higher altitudes than the Patriot system. But it’s not so great for defense contractors who are designing far-out systems to destroy enemy missiles in the vulnerable "boost" phase. As Noah noted earlier today, one major boost-phase program is already in the crosshairs: the laser-equipped Boeing 747 that is supposed to zap missiles out of the sky as they rise from the launch pad.

Observers are also wondering what this shift means for Boeing’s Ground Based Midcourse Defense, or GMD. The Bush administration activated GMD at two sites, one in Alaska and one in California; according to Reuters, Cartwright said the future of the system would depend on whether it could counter other threats. "The more utility, the more willing you’re going to be to put money in it," he said.

Interestingly, Gen. Bantz Craddock, the head of U.S. European Command, said in written testimony submitted today that the U.S. Navy was studying the feasibility of stationing a missile-defense-capable Aegis ship to defend the Eastern Mediterranean region. In his testimony, Craddock said the Navy was leading an "urgent effort" to develop a command-and-control architecture for an Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense ship operating in defense of countries in the Eastern Mediterranean.

At first glance, that sounds like a more realistic way to counter the Iran missile threat than deploying the long-range GMD system in Europe. The U.S. military has previously looked at the possibility of creating an "instant" ballistic-missile defense system by tying the land-based X-band radar developed for Thaad with sea-based radars and interceptors; Rick Lehner of the Missile Defense Agency told Danger Room a transportable X-band radar has been used in previous tests to provide cueing information to an Aegis ship which then used the data to perform a simulated launch and intercept.

UPDATE: The Obama administration is also picking up on a top complaint of the missile defense critics: namely, that missile defense testing isn’t real enough. Elaine Grossman of Global Security Newswire quotes Peter Verga, the acting deputy defense policy chief, as saying: "I think anything the test community can do to reassure people that the tests are, in fact, operationally realistic is very important."

PHOTO: U.S. Army

19 December 2008

AADC Asks for Another Huge Slice of PORK


As you read through the request, you'll get to the part where AADC tries to hold the Alaska State Legislature hostage by claiming, "If this capital request is not approved, the KLC will not be able to support the U.S. Air Force in its Operationally Responsive Space program. Nor will AADC be able to attract other potential customers..."

Since 1995, AADC has had a continuous pattern of saying at every step and every request for more handouts that if they just get this one, then everybody will want to launch rockets in Kodiak. Realistically, it's just too darn expensive to launch in Kodiak, (unless, of course, you are spending Department of Defense dollars.)
With the extreme drop in the cost of oil per barrel, the State of Alaska cannot afford to give handouts to AADC. It's time for them to pay their own way.

Click on the title of this post to see the entire document in PDF, including some financial charts not in this post.
k
Kodiak Launch Complex Infrastructure FY2010 Request: $17,500,000
Reference No: 41789

AP/AL: Appropriation Project Type: Construction
Category: Development
Location: Kodiak Contact: Dale K. Nash, Chief Executive Officer
House District: Kodiak (HD 36) Contact Phone: (907)561-3338
Estimated Project Dates: 07/01/2009 - 06/30/2014
Brief Summary and Statement of Need:
Alaska Aerospace Development Corporation (AADC) requests $17.5 million to build two facilities: a dedicated rocket motor storage facility and an additional launch pad. This program contributes to the Department's mission of promoting a healthy economy and strong communities by providing economic growth in the communities it serves.
Additional Information / Prior Funding History:
Refer to the funding matrix in the detailed description.
Project Description/Justification:
This is the second of a two-year funding request for this multi-year project.
Alaska Aerospace Development Corporation’s (AADC) Kodiak Launch Complex (KLC) requests funding for the following: a dedicated rocket motor storage facility, an additional launch pad, and related infrastructure. KLC’s existing two launch pads are right next to each and cannot be used simultaneously, thereby limiting customers and launches. The additional facilities will allow multiple launch customers to be on site simultaneously, double KLC’s launch capabilities, and result in KLC being a full service spaceport.
AADC is currently developing a long-term relationship with the U.S. Air Force (USAF). The USAF plans to initiate the Operationally Responsive Space (ORS) program with the goal of having launch on-demand capability – placing national defense assets in orbit with very little lead time. KLC is an attractive launch site for the ORS program because the KLC offers flexible launch scheduling not available at other U.S. launch sites; and launches from KLC avoid populated areas, environmentally
sensitive areas, and congested air routes. However, the ORS program will require a dedicated rocketmotor storage facility and dedicated launch pad. Neither is currently available at the KLC.
An initial ORS demonstration launch is planned for September 2009 and a second potential launch is scheduled for December 2009. Once mature, it is estimated the ORS program will launch four or more payloads to orbit each year. This is in addition to launches already provided for the Department of Defense, Missile Defense Agency. In addition, the AADC is currently in discussions with other potential customers such as other Department of Defense agencies, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and commercial interests.
The facilities will be built over the next two years and will cost $35 million. In fiscal year 2009 and again in 2010 AADC has/will be requesting $17.5 million. Of that amount, $14.0 million will be provided by the federal government and $3.5 million is requested from the State’s General Fund. The State’s initial General Fund investment of $15.6 million has resulted in $214 million in revenue, a viable aerospace industry within Alaska, and employment opportunities in Kodiak. KLC has become an acknowledged national asset in the U.S. spaceport inventory. Additional investment by the State
will send a strong message that Alaska supports the KLC and the continued expansion of the aerospace industry in Alaska.
If this capital request is not approved, the KLC will not be able to support the U.S. Air Force in its Operationally Responsive Space program. Nor will AADC be able to attract other potential customers as the KLC will continue to be limited – unable to accommodate multiple launch customers on site simultaneously.
Funding History
Year Amount Legislation AR #
FY 1999 5,000,000 SLA 98 Ch 139 Page 40 Line 9 32591-04
FY 2000 6,000,000 SLA 99 Ch 2 Page 38 Line 21 32646-04
FY 2000 9,300,000 RPL 0810064 32647-04
FY 2001 17,900,000 SLA 00 Ch 135 Page 3 Line 13 32627-05
FY 2002 4,500,000 SLA 01 Ch 61 Page 3 Line 23 32639-06
FY 2002 20,000,00 SSSLA 02 Ch 1 Page 112 Line 4 32673-06
FY 2004 38,000,000 SLA 03 Ch 82 Page 45 Line15 32679-08
FY 2006 36,000,000 FSSLA05 Ch3 Page3 Line27 32723-09
FY 2007 15,000,000 SLA 06 Ch82 Page 3 Line 30 10334-11
FY 2008 15,000,000 SLA 07 Ch30 Page 84 Line 31 6355-12
FY 2009 17,500,000 SLA 08 Ch29 Page 88 Line 9 4689-13

State of Alaska Capital Project Summary Department of Commerce, Community, and Economic Development
FY2010 Governor Reference No: 41789
12/14/08 4:18:04 PM Page 2 Released December 15th

State of Alaska Capital Project Summary Department of Commerce, Community, and Economic Development
FY2010 Governor Reference No: 41789
12/14/08 4:18:04 PM Page 1 Released December 15th
Kodiak Launch Complex Infrastructure FY2010 Request: $17,500,000

Reference No: 41789

13 December 2008

Kodiak Rejects Missile Defense - Overwhelmingly


Results from the Kodiak Daily Mirror online poll, December 5 through December 12:

The U.S. missile shield...

is unnecessary - 67.17%

is important for the nation's defense - 21.59%

will never work - (5.1%)

will ramp up a new arms race - (6.15%)

[percentages based on 667 responses]

Over 78% of the respondents voted anti missile defense. While online polls are generally considered "unscientific", it seems clear a community that is home to a facility used in missile defense tests rejects the notion that it is actually needed.

Coupled with another poll from 26 February 2005, it appears that the KLC is not only unneeded, but also unwanted. We have copied the post from that date below:

Poll Proves Local Opposition to Kodiak Launch Complex

Results of the Kodiak Daily Mirror online poll (17-24 February 2005) 839 responses
Published 24 Feb 2006 in the Kodiak Daily Mirror, page 4
"Why Should the Kodiak Launch Complex exist, or not exist?"

41% - It's waste of taxpayer money and useless in national defense
15.85% - It could potentially damage the environment.

56.85% - Anti-Kodiak Launch Complex

27.41% - It's crucial for national defense
15.71% - It's good for the local economy

43.12% - pro-KLC

The poll clearly indicates local attitudes toward Space Pork Kodiak. We suspect the numbers opposing the KLC would be even higher if there hadn't been the large number of out-of-state workers in town to support the latest MDA launch. The poll was running over 50% for "It's a waste..." until somebody alerted the KLC staff around Feb 22 causing a huge spike in the pro percentages. Despite this anomaly, the unmistakable community opposition is undeniable and prevailed in the overall results.

11 December 2008

More Alternative Views of the Missile "Test"

From Arms Control Wonk

MDA Test Oddities

I am close to posting on the most recent Missile Defense Agency flight test (FTG-05).

In case you wonder why this is taking me literally days to work through (with lots of help from David Wright), read these statements by new MDA Director General Patrick O’Reilly.

Good afternoon, or as Mr. Whitman said, almost good evening. What I would like to do is go over exactly what happened this afternoon. At 1504 Eastern time, a little after 3:00, we launched a target out of Kodiak, Alaska and it did end up, 29 minutes later, with an intercept off of California using a ground-based mid-course defense system, the Aegis system, some of our satellite systems and our early warning radar system in Sacramento and also using a forward-based radar that we had located in Juneau, Alaska for today’s test only.

[snip]

All right — and we showed the footage of today’s launch out of Vandenberg. As I said, the target was launched at 1504 and at 1523 Eastern Time, the target was in view and — of the Beale radar and the other sensors, and we launched a ground-based interceptor. That’s the first stage, and then it will show a separation. We’ll have other data that will come over the next 24 hours — the intercept occurred over 200 kilometers in altitude and 1,300 kilometers downrange from the launch point.

[snip]

Q: Why is it hard for the target to — why is it hard to deploy countermeasures, why did that fail?

GEN. O’REILLY: Well, I can’t get into the great detail, but I can say simply, countermeasures, you try to build them to be very lightweight so that they don’t affect the original flight, but at the same time, you’re traveling at about 10 kilometers a second, somewhere around there, around 15,000 miles an hour. So at that, at that and you’re leaving the earth’s atmosphere, and you’re typically doing a lot of maneuvers at that point and at the same time you have to try to deploy two or three or four, whatever it is, lightweight objects. And that has been problematic on this particular target. The target itself is 40 years old, and it was one of some of our older missiles. Again, this was the last test using this particular target configuration, and we have a new target that is being assembled at this time by Lockheed Martin, that’ll be tested in the spring with Aegis and then follow up with a GMD later on this summer in another test. And that will be a different countermeasure system, again, a newer one.

The numbers in these passages are complete goobledygook.

— The entire scenario took 29 minutes? It is hard to believe that the interceptor was launched nineteen minutes into flight (15:23 EST) and took a full ten minutes to travel just 1,315 kilometers.

1,315 km in ten minutes works out to about 2.2 km/s. (The hypotenuse of triangle with 200 km and 1,300 km legs.) The GMD interceptor is supposed to have a burnout of like 7-8 km/s.

What, did MDA strap the interceptor to a flock of geese? That’s got to be a mistake. It probably should have taken four or five minutes for flyout. I am honestly very, very confused here.

— The countermeasures failed because the missile was traveling 10 km/s?

First, this is a 3,000 km range missile with a burnout velocity of probably around 4.5 km/s. It wasn’t traveling anywhere near 10 clicks a second. (Not that speed would explain why the countermeasures didn’t work, but he’s clearly trying to make something up on the spot and just gets confused.)

Second, ICBMs don’t travel 10 km/s. The speed is more like 7 or 8 km/s. Of course, O’Reilly also gave the measure in miles per hour — 15,000 mph, which in metric that is about 7 km/s.

So, here you what appears to be a simple error (the timeline doesn’t jibe), an apples-to-oranges comparison (talking about ICBM speeds in a test against a much slower moving MRBM) and a basic inability to convert to metric.

Other than that, everything is clear as a bell.

Comment

I’d looked at similar puzzlements in an earlier test. I don’t have an explanation for the apparently slow fly-out time of the interceptor, but do have a thought about the target speeds and, possibly, some constraints on decoy deployment.

If you look at the locations of the second and third stage range safety areas (http://www.kodiakdailymirror.com/?pid=19&id=7035), you see that they’re much closer together than would be expected. I suspect that means the third stage was used as an accelerator to give the target RV an ICBM-like trajectory. I.e., the second stage delivers the third stage to a point at or after the apogee of a simulated ICBM trajectory, then the third stage pitches down to impart the proper velocity vector. After which the decoys would have to deploy. Something like was done at White Sands way back when: http://www.designation-systems.net/dusrm/app4/athena.html

Might be worth running some simulations using such a scenario.

— Allen Thomson · Dec 11, 02:02 PM ·

08 December 2008

Additional Perspectives on "Successful"(?) Missile Test

From "The Political Landscape"
http://www.wholesomereading.com/?p=338#comment-505

Missile Command

If the Obama administration brings us one significant change, I hope it’s the end of this bloody fraud.

From "Griper News"
http://gripernews.blogspot.com/2008/12/when-is-failure-success-when-you-ask.html

Saturday, December 06, 2008
When is Failure Success? When You Ask the Pentagon
clipped from edition.cnn.com

A missile shield test was a "smashing success," Pentagon officials said Friday, despite the failure of the test to put to rest concerns that the interceptor might not be able to differentiate between real missiles and decoys.

Eight of the United States' 13 missile defense tests have been deemed a success.

The ground-based interceptor missile, launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, destroyed a long-range ballistic missile launched from Kodiak, Alaska, the Defense Department's Missile Defense Agency said.

But one key aspect of the test -- to see whether the system could tell the difference between a missile and a decoy aimed at confounding its "seek" systems -- failed because the decoy did not deploy.

Early in his campaign, Obama pledged to "cut investments in unproven missile defense systems." But he later said he would support missile defense systems if they work.

That last paragraph tells you all you need to know. If it doesn't work, Obama's going to cut it. So every test, regardless of outcome, will be called a success.

The spin isn't even consistent. Where the test was meant to simulate "countermeasures similar to what Iran or North Korea could deploy," Lt. Gen. Patrick J. O'Reilly, director for the Missile Defense Agency, says, "Countermeasures are very difficult to deploy. We have had trouble deploying them in the past."

So N. Korea and Iran can pull it off, but we can't?

From "In From the Cold"
Jason Wolfe said...

What does this do to the global deterrence environment? How does this affect our relationship with Russia? Keep in mind that this was launched from Alaska, which can see Russia from its windows. Even if this missile defense shield is propoganda and would never work in against a real missile, it will still have the effect of driving up deterrence tensions. Russia will now have to move ever closer to launch on warning readiness. Remember "Able Archer" from 1983? Remember how close the world came to ending from false alarms? These missile defense systems would never stop a real nuclear assault, simply because the number of interceptors is less than the number of nuclear missiles. But these missile defense systems dramatically increase nuclear tensions by forcing the weaker nations to adopt launch on warning posture.

Pretend we successfully get this missile defense shield online. The era of deterrence will be over, and America will now have the power of "compellence". America will be able to compel all other Nuclear powers to obey us, because we can win in a Nuclear war. Does anyone else see how dangerous that world would be? Any nuclear war, even small ones, will end our civilization. Eroding deterrence, and entering compellence puts the world at risk. These missile defense shields are needlessly jeopardizing the future of the species.
3:05 PM

07 December 2008

Another Perspective on the Missile Test

From Foreign Policy Watch
Diplomatic strategy, international news, and thoughtful political analysis

December 6, 2008
Failure to Launch: "Successful" Missile Defense Test

Much of the criticism of the test trials of the US ground-based missile defense system has focused on the fact that the Pentagon's tests have almost always been carried out under highly scripted scenarios. Most notoriously, most instances have involved the launching of interceptors when the time of launch and flight trajectory of the target missile were known in advance. The trials also frequently do not realistically involve missiles equipped with decoys that would otherwise work to deceive interceptors and tracking radars in flight. Neither of these comforts are conditions that would prevail in the event of an actual attack.

Yesterday, the Missile Defense Agency conducted its most recent test, this time involving decoys. At least, that was the plan. While the test was dubbed a "success," there was only one problem: the countermeasures failed to deploy.

Military officials said the test showed for the first time that various radars and defense systems could be used together.

However, the success of the test was tempered by the failure of the dummy target to deploy planned "countermeasures" -- devices designed to try to throw off the interceptor. As a result, officials could not tell whether the system can distinguish between a warhead and decoys that probably would accompany an actual attack.

Needless to say, any state willing to launch an offensive ballistic missile attack against the US is going to (1) launch more than one missile and (2) be certain that its countermeasures are able to successfully evade intercept attempts by US missile defense systems.

http://fpwatch.blogspot.com/2008/12/failure-to-launch-successful-missile.html

Photos of Recent Missile Launch

Exclusive photos of the launch from Kodiak are posted here:
http://progressivealaska.blogspot.com/2008/12/kodiak-missile-test-photos-progressive.html

06 December 2008

Missile Test Unrealistic

From the "In From the Cold" blog


Blogger Brian said...

Aside from the bit about the planned countermeasure failing to work, the other huge difference is the velocity. A ballistic missile fired at the US from Iran or North Korea is going to have a much higher velocity - about 40% higher than the target in this scenario.

So I'm not quite sure how this "proves" the ability to intercept a missile from either of those two States when it's moving at a much lower speed and with no countermeasures, two things we know they are going to have.

05 December 2008

How Do We Define Success?

Today a rocket launched from Kodiak was intercepted by a rocket launched from Vandenburg AFB in California. As the champagne celebratory haze clears, keep a few things in mind:

1. It wasn't a resounding "success": According to Lt. Gen. Patrick O'Reilly, head of the Missile Defense Agency, "...the target did not release planned countermeasures designed to try to confuse the interceptor missile. O'Reilly did not say what those countermeasures were, but they often include decoys or chaff to throw off shoot-down attempts." Apparently the technology to shoot down a real enemy missile which would have countermeasures is not yet working.

2.It wasn't a truly realistic test: The "test" was very tightly controlled - everybody knew when the interceptor would be launched and its probable path (they've launched targets from KLC before). One wonders what would happen if they actually had to scramble an interceptor with no prior warning. Now that would be a true test.

3. If the U.S. can't launch an ICBM that works the way it should, why do we think other countries can? Neither North Korea or Iran has ever successfully fired a missile that had any chance of landing anywhere near the U.S. Right now, if North Korea got really lucky, they might be able to hit the tip of the Aleutians. We are sure the folks out there appreciate the expenditure of ten billion dollars a year to help them sleep more soundly.

4. It's ALL about the money: Roughly $10 billion is spent per year on the program, which is run by defense contractor Boeing Co. but includes work by most of the nation's largest weapons makers. It is spread across three branches of the military and is composed of missiles, radar and satellites designed to intercept missiles during different stages of flight.

5. Fortunately, President-elect Barack Obama expressed skepticism about the capabilities of the system during his campaign, leading to speculation he may reduce the program's scope. Russia has strongly objected to plans to install missile interceptors in Eastern Europe.

6. At least the true character of the KLC has finally been admitted. According to the AP: "WASHINGTON - The Defense Department said today it shot down a missile launched from a military base in Alaska..."

7. Finally, Kodiak desperately needs a new high school and a new police station and jail. Our roads are a mess and infrastructure in Kodiak, Alaska and all across the United States is crumbling. Take a drive down Mission Road past the Salvation Army and ask yourself: Is Missile Defense worth it? Friday's test cost between $120 million to $150 million.

It Really Is Space Pork Kodiak


Congratulations to Alaska Aerospace Development Corporation for their eternal optimism and complete disregard for reality.

We had an eerie feeling of déjà vu when we read AADC President Tom Case’s claim: “We (AADC) are on the tipping point of being able to break out into a significant aerospace industry in Alaska.”

In the mid 1990’s, when the KLC was just a dream due to lack of funding, Pat Ladner repeatedly claimed, “Build it and they (private commercial launches) will come.” Local residents who researched the satellite launch market as well as the Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority knew private customers were not coming and they never did.

So Ted Stevens pressured the Pentagon into funding the construction with your taxes and every launch has been government funded, all but one overtly military.

Now, despite an inability to cover operation costs with launch revenues, AADC wants to build even more infrastructure at Narrow Cape: an additional launch pad and a rocket motor storage facility. They want even more handouts from the federal and state governments to build their “field of dreams”. These unneeded structures would be located on the ridge overlooking West Twin Lake and Fossil Beach.

Why? Because “AADC anticipates a demand for ‘the ability to put small satellites into orbit quickly to fill a specific need for a period of time.’”. They also anticipated a demand for the ability to launch commercial satellites. We all know how that worked out. There are no corn fields at Narrow Cape from which launch customers will magically appear.

Governor Palin inserted three million dollars of state funding in the last state budget to help AADC with their dreams, yet vetoed a request for one-third that amount to fund seismic upgrades to Peterson Elementary School. She might be out a-huntin’ and a-fishin’ but she shore ain’t figgered out fiscal responsibility and wise use of state funds.

As the KLC launch tower continues to corrode, it is time to stop wasting tax dollars and state funds on a rusty white elephant. It is still Space Pork Kodiak, no matter how you slice it.

03 December 2008

KLC Wasn't Wanted and They Couldn't Pay Their Own Way (and they still can't)

Stevens pushed Kodiak rocket funding on reluctant military
Article published on Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008
By JAN HUISMAN
Mirror Writer

When, in 1997, the Alaska Aerospace Development Corporation suddenly received $18 million dollars in federal funding for its planned rocket launch site on Kodiak Island, it was no secret U.S. Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska had pulled some strings.

New evidence indicates Stevens not only pulled, but pushed, strong-arming Missile Defense commanders on behalf of AADC.

The money appeared in a Pentagon spending bill during a House-Senate conference in the fall of 1996. $23 million was added to the budget of a small Air Force missile defense program. $5 million would be spent on two launches for the program — the remaining $18 million was earmarked for construction of the Kodiak Launch Complex.

Newspapers at the time reported the Air Force did not solicit the funding.

“The Air Force believes this is an important test but due to higher priority requirements and limited budgets, did not request funds for this test,” the Air Force said in a statement to the Anchorage Daily News.

Michael Cantrell, an engineer working for the Air Force Atmospheric Interceptor Technology program, said Stevens added the money to his program’s account after he worked out a deal in which the money would go to Kodiak.

“I understand that Sen. Stevens wanted to fund the range, but could not just put the funds in the budget for a range without a user. So I became that user and the funds were added to my budget for the Kodiak Complex,” Cantrell wrote in a fax to the Kodiak Daily Mirror.

When Cantrell’s superiors at the missile defense program found out, they were furious.

“I was opposed to using missile defense money for the Kodiak facility only because we already had our launch facilities that we were using for missile testing,” said retired Rear Adm. Richard D. West, then deputy director of the Ballistic Missile Defense Organization.

“We were using White Sands and Kwajalein (launch facilities), which were already developed and paid-for launch facilities that were sufficient for our testing.”

West said Stevens overruled MDA’s priorities, insisting the Kodiak project proceed.

No one more important

AADC has never denied Stevens’ importance to their agency.

“No one has been more important to AADC than Senator Ted Stevens,” wrote former AADC CEO Pat Ladner in the 2002 annual report. “He held us to a strict standard and provided help to AADC only after we convinced him that our goals would benefit the nation as well as Alaska.”

Yet others said it was Stevens who did the convincing.

“Congress has the right to put money into programs that they think are important to the nation,” West said. “We made a point that in this particular case, we didn’t think we needed that facility and could use the money for something else.”

In response, West said Stevens sent a “strong message.”

“We were to see that that money would be used in building the facility for Kodiak.”

The Alaska Aerospace Development Corporation was formed as an independent state agency in 1991 with the intention of bringing space-related economic development to Alaska. Ladner was hired as CEO in 1992, leaving a management position at the Strategic Defense Initiative, a forerunner to the Missile Defense Agency.

Initially focused around expanding the Poker Flats facility in Fairbanks, the agency settled in 1994 on Kodiak as a suitable site for a launch facility. Advantages included range safety – with nothing but water for thousands of miles south of Kodiak Island — and the ability to launch satellites into a polar orbit.

In a series of public meetings in Kodiak in the mid ’90s, Ladner pitched the project as a cutting-edge venture that would bring the burgeoning commercial space industry to Alaska. Ladner said several private communications and aerospace firms had expressed interest in launching out of Kodiak.

Funding for construction was to come from bonds issued by the Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority, to be repaid by profits from commercial activity.

But the customers never turned up and the project failed to meet AIDEA’s funding criteria. The project appeared dead in the water.

Neal Brown, former director of the Poker Flats research range, said he had been hopeful but skeptical about the commercial potential of the aerospace industry.

“I’m sure (Ladner) worked really hard to get commercial stuff, but he just never materialized it,” Brown said. “So he went for what he could, and that became the military.”

Cantrell was the subject of a lengthy New York Times article in October detailing how he leveraged his position as head of the experimental AIT program to collect more than $1.6 million in kickbacks. Cantrell and his deputy, Doug Ennis, are waiting sentencing after pleading guilty to corruption charges.

Cantrell lobbied Capitol Hill to line up federal funding for his program. Often, as in the case of AADC, he enlisted congressmen and senators with promises the money would be spent on contractors or agencies in the politicians’ constituencies.

Cantrell said he worked with Ladner to procure funding for the Kodiak Launch Complex.

“Pat knew what I was doing,” Cantrell wrote in the fax to the Mirror. “Bill Bittner was AADC’s attorney, and Pat used Bill to work Stevens’ office.”

Bill Bittner, attorney and lobbyist, is Sen. Stevens’ brother-in-law.

Ladner acknowledged knowing Cantrell, but distanced himself from Cantrell’s lobbying.

“Mr. Cantrell and I never went to see Sen. Stevens at all. Now, if he went to see Sen. Stevens, that’s fine,” Ladner said.

He said the funds that came through Cantrell’s program were not make or break for AADC.

“We got money from a lot of sources. What can I tell ya?” he said.

Regarding the Pentagon’s reluctance to pay for the Kodiak project, Ladner said they didn’t appreciate what they were getting.

“The people that were in missile defense at that time probably would have rather had that money for something else, but as it proves out now, it was a worthy investment,” he said, citing Kodiak’s ongoing involvement in missile defense testing.

Tipping point

Cantrell’s first test in November 1998 launched from a mobile pad on the Kodiak site where contractors had only just begun pouring concrete; The program used to justify $18 million in funding for KLC could itself have launched without it.

Compounding the waste, the first missile carried none of Cantrell’s test equipment in the payload. Cantrell’s superiors ordered it removed when they found out about the earmark to build KLC.

“After the Stevens meeting I was told to participate, but we could not get my payload on the launch without a significant delay and cost increase,” Cantrell wrote. “So, we put my program name on the launch and left the hardware off.”

Ladner said AADC does not know what is on the classified military payloads, aside from confirming they do not contain anything hazardous.

Since 1998, the Kodiak Launch Complex has completed 13 launches. Aside from one launch contracted by Lockheed and NASA, all have been military.

All of the seven launches since 2004 were target missiles fired by the Missile Defense Agency to simulate an attack on the U.S. coming from Asia.

Aside from the $76 million earned in revenue from these launches, the AADC has received $138 million in federal capital investments since 1993.

In August, AADC signed a new three-year contract with MDA that could be worth $50 million. A target missile launch is planned for Friday, and two Air Force launches are on the schedule over the next two years.

Current AADC CEO Dale Nash said the anticipated commercial launches never materialized because satellite phone systems lost out to terrestrial cell phones.

“There were an awful lot of people counting on that being out there – constellations of hundreds of satellites,” he said. “The commercial (demand) for polar orbits has basically gone away.”

Nash said AADC faces strong competition from government-subsidized launch sites in India, Russia, China and Europe.

Unless depreciation of the launch site’s infrastructure is factored in, Nash said, AADC is operating at a profit.

Yet AADC has never issued a dividend to the State of Alaska, which initially invested $15 million in the project. Nash said the Alaska legislature agreed it was better to reinvest profits into growing the launch capabilities.

The agency is seeking capital funding from the state to expand the Kodiak Launch Facility, Nash said. The expansion would give Kodiak the ability to launch quickly upon request.

“Right now, it’s typically about 60 days from the time someone shows up until they can go launch,” Nash said.

“Russia and China both have the capability to launch within about an hour to two hours from the time they decide they want to launch until they’re on orbit,” he said. “We’re trying to design and build an additional launch pad with rocket motor storage to get that kind of capability.”

AADC president Tom Case said rapid launch capability would help protect a nation increasingly dependent on satellite systems for its economic and national security.

“There are anti-satellite technologies that have proliferated around a number of space-faring countries now,” said Case, who joined AADC in 2007 after retiring from the Air Force.

Case said AADC anticipates a demand for “the ability to put small satellites into orbit quickly to fill a specific need for a period of time.

“This is a major economic development opportunity for this state (and) it’s a key part of our national security infrastructure.”

“We are on the tipping point of being able to break out into a significant aerospace industry in Alaska,” he said.

Mirror writer Jan Huisman may be reached via e-mail at jhuisman@kodiakdailymirror.com.

AADC has claimed that “We are on the tipping point of being able to break out into a significant aerospace industry in Alaska,” since 1995. Just saying it doesn't make it so.

02 December 2008

We Saw the Rocket! Security is Tight!

Last Friday after a hike around Narrow Cape, we saw the rocket out on the launch pad. According to the security guard, they were doing a "dry run" in preparation for the upcoming launch. Interestingly, the nose was covered with a shroud. Although we didn't take pictures, I don't think anyone would have stopped us.
The rocket is one of those solid fuel dinky little surplus Minuteman or Polaris bottle rocket missiles we have left over from the Cold War. You could actually see the fuse coming out of the rocket that the technician lights with a Bic lighter. I think it was mounted on a Budweiser bottle, but the label was turned away from us, so I can't be sure.
You'd think they'd at least use local beer bottles.

Even More of Your Tax Dollars Being Wasted

Rocket launch expected from Narrow Cape late next week
Article published on Friday, November 28th, 2008, Kodiak Daily Mirror

The Missile Defense Agency plans to launch a missile from Kodiak sometime near the end of next week, according to Dale Nash, CEO of the Alaska Aerospace Development Corporation. The Department of Defense will announce exact time hours before the launch.

The launch, FTG-05, will simulate a missile attack on the United States. An interceptor missile will launch from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.

An AN/TPY-2 radar unit has been temporarily stationed in Juneau as part of the upcoming test. According to MDA, the AN/TPY-2 is a high-resolution X-Band radar used to detect ballistic missiles early in their flight. It can track, identify and estimate the trajectory of a threat missile, and then feed that information to the command and control system used to develop intercept solutions.

The Coast Guard is scheduled to establish a safety zone from Dec. 5 to Dec. 8 in the vicinity of Narrow Cape and Ugak Island, according to a Coast Guard news release.

The safety zone will be enforced between 9 a.m. and 5 p.m. each day or until canceled. The safety zone includes all navigable waters contained within the area bordered by the following latitude and longitude points: 57 degrees 26.094 minutes north, 152 degrees 25.128 minutes west, then south west to 57 degrees 24.294 minutes north, 152 degrees 24.930 minutes west, then south east to 57 degrees 18.318 minutes north, 152 degrees 21.210 minutes west, then northeast 57 degrees 24.306 minutes north, 152 degrees 06.444 minutes west, then northwest to 57 degrees 27.900 minutes north, 152 degrees 16.068 minutes west, then northwest to 57 degrees 28.494 minutes north, 152 degrees 19.218 minutes west.

Unauthorized entry into or through this zone is strictly prohibited and may result in civil or criminal penalties including fines of up to $32,500.

There also will be hazardous rocket impact areas established at points where the rocket stages are predicted to enter the ocean. The first stage hazard area is centered approximately 90 miles southeast of Kodiak Island from Dec. 5 to Dec. 8, between 11 a.m. and 3:30 p.m. each day or until canceled. The hazard area is defined by the points 56.5 degrees north, 151.3 degrees west, 55.95 degrees north, 150.65 degrees west, 56.05 degrees north, 150.35 degrees west, 56.6 degrees north and 151.0 degrees west. All mariners are strongly advised to stay clear of this area.

The other two hazardous rocket impact areas are centered approximately 100 miles southwest of Dehlinger Seamount and 75 miles west of Erben Tablemount located in the North Pacific from Dec. 5 to Dec. 8, between 10 a.m. and 2:30 p.m. each day or until canceled.

The second stage hazard area is defined the following latitude and longitude points 41.15 degrees north, 138.35 degrees west, 39.5 degrees north, 137.45 degrees west, 39.5 degrees north, 136.85 degrees west, 41.15 degrees north and 137.75 degrees west.

The third stage hazard area is defined by the following latitude and longitude points 33.25 degrees north, 135.0 degrees west, 30.9 degrees north, 133.75 degrees west, 30.9 degrees north, 133.0 degrees west, 33.25 degrees north and 134.25 degrees west.

The Coast Guard advises all mariners to stay clear of these areas.

06 November 2008

Rocket Motor Arrives in Kodiak Nov 7-8

Rocket motor arriving for possible December launch from Narrow Cape
Article published on Thursday, Nov 06th, 2008
DAILY MIRROR STAFF

A rocket motor and associated hardware will arrive at the Kodiak State Airport late Friday and be moved to the Kodiak Launch Complex at Narrow Cape early Saturday, according to a Missile Defense Agency news release.

The rocket motor and hardware will be used by the Missile Defense Agency in an upcoming test launch from KLC in December or January to target an interceptor launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. An Air Force C-17 aircraft, carrying the rocket motor will arrive at the airport after the airport has closed for the night. It will then be delivered to KLC via the Chiniak/Pasagshak Highway in a convoy.

Rezanof Drive near the Coast Guard Base and the State Airport will close as the convoy transitions onto the highway. Safety precautions are being taken to assure the safety of the public and every effort will be made to limit possible inconvenience while the convoy moves the rocket to KLC, the release said.

In a separate news release, MDA announced the arrival of an AN/TPY-2 radar unit in Juneau to support the upcoming test. The radar arrived at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration facility at Lena Point, Wednesday, after being flown from the Pacific Missile Range Facility in Hawaii. This is a temporary deployment and the radar will be removed from the site shortly after the test is completed.

According to MDA, the AN/TPY-2 is a high-resolution X-Band radar used to detect ballistic missiles early in their flight. It can track, identify, and estimate the trajectory of a threat missile, and then feed that information to the command and control system used to develop intercept solutions. The AN/TPY-2 is a transportable unit that can be deployed around the world. Juneau was selected because its location provides an operationally realistic sensor picture for the simulated threat missile from Kodiak.

30 October 2008

Next KLC Launch

DEC-JAN To be announced GBI --- Scenario calls for the launch of a mock warhead from the Kodiak Launch Complex, Alaska followed by a Ground-Based Interceptor (GBI) from Vandenberg AFB. The DoD will announce the launch time several hours in advance. Operation Name: FTG-05

http://thechristianradical.blogspot.com/2008/10/nov-5-minute-man-iii-nuke-missile.html

08 September 2008

Fossil Beach Surveillance

The KLC is setting up cameras to monitor anyone driving to Fossil Beach. It's bad enough we have to drive through the KLC to get there; now, our movements will be monitored and recorded. It's reassuring to know that the 49 million received from MDA is being put to good use.